Instead, that water accumulates off the coast of South America, particularly in the winter months. When it is in effect, equatorial winds that normally pull warm surface waters westward across the Pacific Ocean are short-circuited. In the poker game that is the global climate system, El Niño is the wild card that can transform a region’s typical hand. Murat yükselir / the globe and mail, sources: reuters noaa The wild card According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is now a two to one chance that by 2027 a similar event will temporarily nudge the planet across the 1.5-degree global warming threshold countries who are signatories to the Paris climate agreement have pledged to work to avoid.Įven if the current El Niño falls short of that distinction, it will serve as measure of our collective climate resilience and a glimpse of what the future holds for the economic, environmental and societal well being of the planet. The last strong El Niño helped to make 2016 the warmest year on record.
Now, scientists and economists are trying to anticipate what El Niño means when climate change is steadily raising the average global temperatures to ever-higher extremes.
Since 1980, its most pronounced occurrences are estimated to have drained trillions of dollars from the world economy. El Niño has a global reach that can amplify severe weather events on five continents, from droughts in Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa and the eastern Amazon to rising flood waters in countries as far flung as Argentina, Kenya, Pakistan and the United States. Green, a researcher in aquaculture at Vancouver Island University. Mortality rates are around 5 to 10 per cent lower, said Dr. So far, the results of Tim Green’s oyster breeding program have been encouraging. El Niño, a recurring weather event that brings warm temperatures to Pacific waters, is expected to affect shellfish this year, after a three-year absence. “How will they perform?”Ī Vancouver Island University student holds a live Japanese scallop, known as a yesso scallop. “This will be the year to see how our families survive under really stressful conditions,” said Dr. Its return marks a critical test for the oyster project. National Weather Service confirmed El Niño is back, a determination based on temperature shifts in the mid-Pacific.
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In fact, three full seasons have passed during which the northwest has been under the influence of La Niña, El Niño’s cool weather counterpart.īut last month, the U.S. “The last couple of years, we’ve had really good survival,” said Dr. Mortality rates among the selectively-bred oysters are around five to 10 per cent lower, Dr. So far, the results have been encouraging. Green has led a selective breeding program at the Deep Bay Marine Field Station, west of Nanaimo, to produce oysters that are less prone to exhaustion. Tim Green, Canada Research Chair in shellfish and a researcher in aquaculture at Vancouver Island University, is working to improve the fate of B.C.
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